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DEVELOPMENTS
A series of Israeli construction projects in West Bank settlements drew world attention this summer, further derailing the stagnant Israeli-Palestinian peace process, adding friction to the U.S.-Israeli relationship, and threatening to bring down conservative Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s young government less than 12 months after its formation. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has insisted on a complete freeze of settlement construction as a precondition for resuming Israeli-Palestinian peace talks that have stalled since a January war between Israel and Gaza’s Hamas leaders. U.S. President Barack Obama has also insisted on a complete settlement freeze. Netanyahu has tried to forge a tenuous middle path, authorizing the building of hundreds of new units in settlements, but then freezing construction for six to nine months as a sign of goodwill before peace negotiations.
Netanyahu and Abbas were in New York for September’s opening of the U.N. General Assembly and met with members of the Obama Administration. They seem to have made little headway, though, and no plan for talks has yet been announced. BACKGROUND
Israel has occupied parts of the 3,500 square mile West Bank since seizing the territory from Jordan in the 1967 Mideast War. Israelis began building settlement communities in the conquered territory soon after the war concluded. Today, more than 300,000 settlers live in more than 100 West Bank settlements.
The settlements have been widely condemned by the international community, as has the forty-two-year occupation itself. Israel has disengaged from some West Bank towns. In 2005, Israel withdrew completely from the Gaza Strip, forcibly removing about 8,000 Jewish settlers. Israel has balked at a full West Bank withdrawal, though, citing security concerns.
West Bank settlers range from deeply religious Jews who believe the West Bank rightly belongs to the Jewish people to secular families looking for affordable housing that’s a short commute to Jerusalem. There are also so-called “outpost settlers” who live in settlements deep inside the West Bank not authorized by the Israeli government. The Israeli military routinely tears down these settlements, but settlers re-build them in a matter of days. Israel has agreed not to construct any new settlements, but insists building within current settlements is necessary to allow for “natural growth,” meaning current settlers having children. Much of the growth in the settler population is due to in-migration, though.
Most discussions about creating an independent Palestinian state presume that Israel will be allowed to retain some of the land currently occupied by large settlement blocks by swapping land inside the state of Israel. If an independent Palestinian state is created, though, Israel will undoubtedly have to expel a good portion of the 300,000 settlers by force.
Netanyahu has a long history of opposing conciliation with the Palestinian territories. In a previous run as Prime Minister, he disengaged from significant parts of the West Bank town of Hebron, but refused to endorse a “two-state solution.” Netanyahu later resigned as finance minister during the government of fellow Likud party member Ariel Sharon over Sharon’s decision to unilaterally withdraw from the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu has endorsed a two-state solution this time around, but only on the condition that neighboring Arab states officially recognize Israel as a “Jewish state,” something they are unlikely to do, in part because of Israel’s large Arab minority population.
Netanyahu’s position is further complicated by his weak coalition government. Neither he nor centrist candidate Tzipi Livni won a majority in last February’s election. Netanyahu secured his job by forming a coalition with far-right candidate Avigdor Lieberman, now foreign minister. Lieberman, an immigrant from the Soviet Union, is widely viewed as anti-Arab and has sponsored legislation to require Arab citizens of Israel to sign a loyalty oath.
If Netanyahu agreed to a full settlement freeze, he would likely lose support to govern from Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party, triggering a new election. If he does not go far enough, on the other hand, he risks offending President Obama and damaging the relationship between Israel and the U.S., one of the Jewish state’s strongest supporters in the international community.
Abbas has problems of his own. In 2006, his Fatah party lost control of the Gaza Strip to its rival Hamas, which the U.S. considers a terrorist group. The two parties fought a civil war in Gaza in 2007. West Bank Palestinians appreciate the growth in the West Bank economy during Abbas’ time in office, but Hamas is also popular in the West Bank, and Abbas risks losing his governing coalition if he makes too many concessions to Israel.
ANALYSIS
Advocates of settlement construction argue that there’s no point in restricting construction because settler land will likely be swapped into Israel in a two-state peace plan. They’re wrong. Israel’s refusal to halt settlement construction sends a clear message to the U.S., the international community, and Palestinians that it is not serious about pursuing meaningful peace talks. If Israel does not commit to a freeze, it is unlikely peace talks will occur.
President Obama put a great deal of his international clout behind the push for a settlement freeze, but those efforts seem to have come to naught. With Netanyahu and Abbas gone from New York, Obama’s attention will quickly be pulled away by domestic concerns, the war in Afghanistan and the nuclear standoff with Iran. In short, the prospects for peace are not good. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Middle East Envoy George Mitchell should continue to press Israel on a settlement freeze, including threatening a reduction in U.S. military aid and other support. At the same time, though, they must continue dialogue with both Israelis and Palestinians on all other aspects of the conflict and continue to urge both sides to the negotiating table.
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Trafficking and Displacement - October 2009 
