DEVELOPMENTS

In December 2009, people waved good-bye to family members boarding a morning train from Belgrade, Serbia to Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina.  While the journey on this rickety, three-car, communist-styled train may seem insignificant to most, it is the first train in 18 years to link these two war-torn capitals back together – exemplifying the strides Serbia has taken to overcome its tumultuous past and lay new ‘track work’ toward European integration.

The most significant step in Serbia’s path to European integration occurred just a few days later, when Serbian President Boris Tadic travelled to Sweden and personally delivered his country’s formal application for EU membership. Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt of Sweden, which held the rotating EU presidency at the time, praised Serbia’s European ambitions, while President Tadic has verbalized his optimism of becoming an EU member state by 2014.  

However, critics worry that Serbia’s application is premature. With lingering issues regarding war crimes cooperation, economic stability, Kosovo recognition, corruption, judicial and social reform, critics argue that Serbia needs more time to transition into a true ‘European’ state. 

 BACKGROUND

It is not challenging for critics to doubt President Tadic’s predictions.  Examining Serbia’s recent history would suggest that Serbia has long solidified its position as Europe’s pariah.

Yugoslavia’s systematic breakdown began in the early 1990s.  Following the collapse of communism, Slovenia declared independence, followed by Croatia and Bosnia.  Led by Slobodan Milosevic, Serbian nationalists fought rigorously to keep the union together.  After nearly half a decade of war, Bosnia had incurred an estimated 100,000 casualties and Croatia another 20,000.  The violence reported from all sides included death squads, mass assassinations, ethnic cleansing, and repeated rape.

Yet after the 1995 Dayton Accord ended the violence in the north, the Kosovo Liberation Army (“KLA”) began its insurgency in the south.  Recognized by the United States as a terrorist organization until 1998, the KLA fought for independence from Serbia, attacking Yugoslav military outposts.  The Yugoslav army reacted with brutal force until 1999, when the U.S. and NATO began a 2.5 month bombing campaign in Serbia & Montenegro – effectively ending the civil war in Kosovo-Metohija.

Out of the ashes emerged a new, democratic government in Serbia.  With Milosevic out of power, Zoran Djindjic became the new Prime Minister.  With his pro-European and anti-corruption stance, he was revered by the West and Serbian youth, but hated by Serbian nationalists and criminals.  He was assassinated in Belgrade in 2003.

A pro-European president, Boris Tadic, picked up where he left off in 2004. While continuing its close relationship with Russia, Tadic looked to balance this relationship with the European Union and the United States and is credited with bringing Serbia closer to the West.  In September 2008, Serbia signed a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the European Union, an initial step toward closer partnership with and potential membership in the E.U.  However, several factors continued to complicate its progress toward European integration.

For example, the Netherlands vetoed implementation of the SAA, making clear that it would not support the negotiations until all war criminals were captured and “full-cooperation” with the U.N. Criminal Tribunal was achieved. Serbia continued to arrest and hunt down war criminals, and the Dutch were impressed by the U.N. Chief Prosecutor’s optimistic report issued in December 2009 and lifted their veto.

As another push towards E.U. integration, the E.U. abolished its visa requirements for Serbs travelling to the E.U. in December 2009.  This comes ten years after the NATO bombings, when most Serbs were not allowed to leave the country, and almost twenty years since visa restrictions were imposed on the crumbling Yugoslavia in 1991.

While 2009 was a promising year for Serbia’s integration into the E.U., the country must continue to implement the criteria for membership: “stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities, the existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union.”  The question now remains whether Serbia, a country mired with a history of ethnic, social, and criminal violence, is capable of meeting these criteria, and, whether the E.U. is ready to accept a member with Serbia’s violent past.

ANALYSIS

While Serbia has its critics, the majority of E.U. members have been receptive to Serbia’s integration.  
Spain, which currently holds the E.U. presidency, has candidly discussed Serbia’s prognosis and further E.U. enlargement. In 2009, Spanish leaders stated that Kosovo will not be an issue with Serbia’s negotiation and one of its priorities as the E.U. president is expansion.  The Spanish ambassador to Belgrade also voiced his support that the SAA may be ratified in whole by June 2010.  Other countries, such as Greece, have reiterated their “standing and energetic support for Serbia's E.U. accession,” and Italy is credited for being the first country to drive forward visa restrictions for Serbia.  

The E.U. is particularly receptive because it seeks stability in Europe’s “tinderbox.”  With conflict brewing in Bosnia and a stalemate in Kosovo negotiations, the E.U. needs Serbia on its team to prevent future Balkan conflict.  Likewise, given its history of violence and a depressed economy, Serbia needs the E.U. to open up trade and lure foreign direct investment.

Despite this support in Serbia’s E.U. bid, many countries have been cautious about timing of Serbia’s accession.   Bulgaria noted that it may take up to ten years for Serbia to become formally integrated as a member.  One of the main issues is that the EU is experiencing “expansion fatigue” after admitting twelve new members in 2004 and 2007, most of which were comparatively less developed and have required substantial investment from existing E.U. members.

Another issue facing Serbia is the dichotomy between government institutions and the people.  While the government showed initiative and reform in 2009, not all Serbs support E.U. accession.   Besides persistent discrimination against minorities and extensive corruption and hooliganism, many Serbs have had difficulty transitioning from their nationalistic roots to those of the more liberal E.U.  Social and judicial reforms may cause more shock to the way of life Serbs have grown accustomed to if the government continues with this pace.

However, while the train from Belgrade to Sarajevo continues to chug slowly along the tracks, so too will Serbia on its path towards European integration.  With a government willing to reform and an international community supporting its recent momentum, Serbia must now persuade its people to reform with the system.  While it may take more than four years – like the train – it will eventually reach its destination.

D. Marko Cimbaljevich is an attorney in Washington, D.C.  He was recently a litigation associate at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld’s Washington D.C. office.  He graduated magna cum laude from the Catholic University of America – Columbus School of Law, where he served on the school’s International Arbitration Moot Court Team and Note & Comment Editor of the Catholic University Law Review.

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