DEVELOPMENTS

The Turkish government continues to recognize the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which makes up a little over a third of the island. It is the only nation to do so. The European Union, along with the rest of the international community, rejects the Turkish claim and has condemned its occupation of Cyrpus, which presents a major obstacle to Turkey’s EU accession.

Ironically, the basis for an agreement has long existed: both sides generally agree on a bi-zonal, bi-communal federal formula.  But the devil is in the details, and it this case the details are numerous.  A 2004 plan developed by the UN was rejected in referendum by Greek Cypriots who claimed the plan did not address property lost during the Turkish invasion and allowed a Turkish military presence to continue on the island.

Observers agree that the current round of peace talks, begun in September 2008, present the best hope to resolve this conflict.

Throughout its history, Cyprus has witnessed many of the world’s great civilization come and go.  It was originally brought under Greek rule by Alexander the Great and was later a prosperous part of the Roman Empire.  The island came under Ottoman control after a bloody and destructive invasion in 1571.  Misrule under the Ottomans first sparked Greek nationalism among the Greek Cypriot population, which attempted several unsuccessful revolts.

The British took control of Cyrpus from the Ottomans in 1878, allowing the island to avoid the worse of Greek-Turkish bloodletting that erupted elsewhere with the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.  Given that context, however, Turkish Cypriots were wary of Greek control, and disputes over the future of the island’s government escalated in the lead-up to Cyprus' independence in 1960. 

The 1960 constitution attempted to minimize disputes a rigid framework for power-sharing between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots.  The president was to be a Greek Cypriot, the Vice President a Turkish Cypriot.  The ministerial posts would be divided between the two groups in a specific ratio.  Still, tension quickly arose over issues of taxation and municipal autonomy.  In 1963, the Turkish Cypriots withdrew from the government amid mutual recriminations and fighting broke out, leading to a UN intervention. 

A decade of peace proposals from various international diplomats yielded few results, as constitutional issues remained a sticking point.  At the same time, a split emerged between Greek Cypriots who demanded union with Greece – unacceptable in the Turkish Cypriot view – and those who took a more conciliatory stance.  In July 1974 a hard-line faction in the Cyprus National Guard executed a coup with the backing of the Greek military junta.  Days later, Turkey responded with a military invasion that resulted in the effective division of Cyprus, leaving the northern third of the island under Turkish military control.

The human toll of the invasion was steep: In addition to the thousands who died in the fighting, as many as 200,000 Greek Cypriots, who made up 82 percent of the population of the northern area, became refugees.  The right of the return – and the question of property lost by Greek Cypriots during the invasion – was a major factor in Greek Cypriot rejection of the 2004 UN peace plan, as was the continued presence of Turkish troops on Cyprus

Recent event have raised the geopolitical profile of the conflict.  In 2004, Cyprus joined the EU.  Turkey’s membership bid requires it to come to terms with Cyprus.  In addition to the issue of Turkish troop presence on the island, Turkey is committed to implement a customs union with all EU members, which would mean opening its ports.

In this way, Cyprus is often portrayed in the media as an obstacle to Turkey's EU accession, the implication being that Cyprus wishes to block Turkey's path.  It is an implication that Andreas Kakouris, the Cypriot Ambassador to the U.S. disputes.  Cyprus is not fundamentally opposed to Turkey joining the EU, he explained to Foreign Policy Digest.

"Whilst Turkey is occupying Cyprus and does not meet its obligations as laid out by the EU collectively, it is difficult to see Turkey moving to its goal of accession,” he said.  “We want to see Turkey in the EU, but it is not a blank check. Turkey needs to meet its obligations.”  

ANALYSIS

On the other hand, a resurgent Turkey seems more willing to buck the West and pursue an independent foreign policy, raising questions as to its reliability as a partner in Washington.  Recent instability in Greece could further undermine momentum for a deal.  And developments within Cyprus itself could turn against settlement.  In elections to be held in April 2010 the Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat is expected to be replaced by a hard-line candidate. 

Many observers therefore see urgency given the current political context.  In their view, the window for an agreement is narrow.  But others assert that regardless of the Turkish Cypriot leadership, the path to resolution ultimately depends on Turkey's actions.  Even with domestic conciliation between Greek and Turkish Cypriots, the international dimension of the conflict – Turkey’s continued occupation of the island – would remain.  Until that is resolved, there will be less security and prosperity on both sides of the island, a permanent thorn in the side of Turkey-EU relations, and the continuation of long-standing dispute that perpetuates injustices and violations of basic human rights on both sides.  Resolving these matters is urgent regardless of the political calendar.  

Teddy Kahn is a columnist for Foreign Policy Digest.

---

Add this page to your favorite Social Bookmarking websites