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Amid Turmoil in Somalia, a Hint of Hope

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Map of Somalia courtesy of www.maps.com

DEVELOPMENTS

Somalia is becoming increasingly unstable. Fighting between Ethiopian-backed Somali government troops and insurgents has ravaged for months. Roadside bombings, kidnappings and political assassinations regularly occur. Persistent violence has lead to mass exodus and scarcity of food in the war-torn Mogadishu.

According to United Nations refugee agency estimates, the number of displaced people has reached 1 million. The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees stated that 600,000 Somalians are thought to have fled from Mogadishu since February 2007 and 200,000 have been displaced in the past two weeks, leaving "entire neighborhoods in the volatile capital empty."

On October 29, 2007, Somalia's prime minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi, resigned amid internal and external pressures and a power struggle with the Somali president who appointed him. Nur Hassan Hussein, also known as Nur Adde, was sworn in as the new prime minister on November 24, 2007.
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What do they think about us?

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Protest courtesy of www.womanhonorthyself.com

DEVELOPMENTS

Last month's Foreign Policy Digest looked ahead to the Annapolis Conference to explain the stakes and participants. The conference took place in Annapolis on November 27, and was followed by White House visits from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen). Abbas and Olmert issued a joint statement in which they pledged to work towards a two-state solution, form a steering committee, and continue bi-weekly meetings. The conference was notable for several reasons, particularly the guestlist. A number of the Arab League countries attended, including representatives from Saudi Arabia and Syria. Hamas, which is currently in control of the Gaza Strip, was not invited to send a representative because it is still listed by the State Department as a terrorist organization.

Additionally, this is the first time in years President Bush has actively engaged in the quest for Israeli-Palestinian peace. The change in focus in the final year of his presidency is surprising. Various theories abound regarding the president and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice's new interest in Israeli-Palestinian peace. It is worth investigating whether the decline in U.S. standing across the globe has motivated them to work on renewing the U.S. position. 

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The General and The President

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Photo courtesy of economist.com

DEVELOPMENTS

After six years of serving as both General and President of Pakistan, President Pervez Musharraf stepped down as army chief on November 28th. He has allowed both of his political opponents to return from exile. In addition to pledging that "free and fair" elections will take place in January 2008, Musharraf has vowed to lift Pakistan's state of emergency by December 16th. Under mounting pressure from domestic and international critics, President Musharraf seems to be moving Pakistan towards democracy. Why, then, are some U.S. officials demanding regime change in Pakistan while others are supporting Musharraf's "measured transition" to democracy?

BACKGROUND

United States-Pakistan relations have been spotty since the Cold War. In the mid-1950s the U.S., disturbed by the increased Soviet presence in the Middle East and South Asia, signed a mutual defense agreement with Pakistan. As a result, the newly created Muslim country received millions in military aid to secure its borders. But in the 1960s, while Pakistan was in the middle of a war with India, the U.S. suspended military aid to Pakistan. Aid resumed a few years later but was paused again in 1979, when the U.S. suspected (correctly) that Pakistan was developing nuclear weapons.

As the Soviet threat loomed large in Southern Asia, the Reagan administration revisited aid to Pakistan, giving it $3.2B to support neighboring Afghanistan against Soviet expansionism. In the mid-1990s, however, Congressional concerns about Pakistan's nuclear weapons program prompted new legislation which, once again, halted economic and military aid to its irregular ally.

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Post-Communist Democracy

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Photo of Orange Revolution in Ukraine courtesy of
W. Wertelecki, M.D. and R. Cabrali

DEVELOPMENTS

In early November, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili broke up opposition demonstrations with riot police and tear gas, shut down independent television stations, and declared a state of emergency that lasted nine days. When pressed on the issue, he blamed Russian meddling for the unrest. Under international pressure, President Saakashvili ceded to calls for early elections and scheduled them for January 2008. These developments are particularly startling because President Saakashvili has been praised as a democrat and a reformer since leading the Rose Revolution in 2003.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, a new government has yet to be formed following snap parliamentary elections held on September 30, 2007. Like in Georgia, peaceful protests ushered in a new era of governance in Ukraine in 2004. This is the third time Ukrainians have voted in a national election since the dramatic events of the Orange Revolution three years ago. The results show a slim majority favoring the parties of President Viktor Yushchenko and Orange Revolution heroine Yulia Tymoshenko, making a revival of the original "orange coalition" most likely.

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Iraq and its Discontents

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Map of Iraq courtesy of NationalGeographic.com

DEVELOPMENTS

Reports from Iraq indicate that violence has abated recently. The decrease in casualties has even prompted some refugees to return to their homes in Baghdad. Many are attributing this upturn in safety to the military "surge," the deployment of 20,000 additional troops, which began in February. The surge boosted the number of American troops in Iraq to 160,000 and the number of American casualties to 3,867 as of November 20, 2007. The primary purpose of the surge, however, was not just to increase safety, but also to create a stable environment for political progress. However, U.S. military officials have yet to see the Iraqi government take advantage of the increased security. Long-awaited unification legislation, such as for oil sharing policy, has yet to appear. The White House seems focused on more achievable accomplishments, like renewing the UN mandate allowing an American presence in the country.

One of the deadliest problems facing Iraq is the sectarian violence, labeled by many as a civil war between Sunni and Shiite Muslims. This violence escalated markedly after the bombing of one of the Shiites' holiest shrines, the Samarra Mosque in February 2006. Other major issues plaguing Iraq include lack of reliable electricity, intra-sectarian violence, and political corruption.

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