BACKGROUND

America's position in world opinion has been a heady topic in the presidential campaign, particularly among the Democratic candidates. Each has addressed it in similar terms to Barack Obama's campaign commercial in which he announces, "I am absolutely confident that we can restore America's leadership in the world. We're going to lead with our values and our ideals by deed and by example. I want to go before the world and say: America's back. America is back."

In a recent speech, Hillary Clinton pledged to "restore America's standing in the world." Dennis Ross, currently Counselor and Ziegler Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute of Near East Policy, has just written a book entitled "Statecraft, And How to Restore America's Standing in the World."

But what are people in world, specifically in the Middle East, actually saying? Do they respect America as a world power? Was there enthusiasm for the Annapolis conference?

On November 13, Gallup released a report ranking perceptions of American leadership among the Arab world. The report analyzed several years' worth of polling data. The Arab country in which the U.S. received the highest rating was Lebanon, although the approval rate was only 40 percent. In the tiny Gulf state of the U.A.E., generally considered pro-American, only 7 percent of the citizens support American leadership. The Pew Global Attitudes Project also found negative perceptions of the United States in many Middle Eastern countries. These surveys' findings show that some of presidential candidates may be correct that the Iraq war hurt U.S. standing in the Arab world. Exactly 50 percent of respondents throughout the region believe that Saddam Hussein's ouster was not morally justifiable.

The latest poll by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre, a Palestinian polling organization (which polls Palestinians residing in the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jersualem), found that 62 percent of respondents "expect the failure of [the] Annapolis Conference." An Israeli poll taken before the conference also found a low level of enthusiasm for the conference, with 57 percent of the Jewish public foreseeing failure.

The Annapolis Conference was organized by the American State Department. As such, does its presumed failure by the people who will ultimately be most effected (for better or worse) reflect how Israelis and Palestinians view the U.S.? It seems that it does. Although generally perceived pro-American, 52 percent of the Israeli Jewish public opposes American arbitration to help decide final status issues (Interestingly, 53 percent of the Israeli Arab public, only a share higher than the Israeli Jewish public, is in favor of allowing the U.S. to arbitrate the issues). Yet despite these fears, the Israeli and Palestinian leaders specifically pledged in their joint statement "to form an American, Palestinian and Israeli mechanism, led by the United States, to follow up on the implementation of the road map."

ANALYSIS

Although numerous commentators claim that the level of mutual trust and respect between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is at unprecedented levels, the decisions they made and continue to make will obviously be felt by their peoples. Without public support, in a region prone to violence, concessions from either party will be difficult to secure. With the Annapolis Conference over, it remains to be seen whether the vague promises made on the Naval Academy's grounds will be honored. The high level of skepticism which preceded the conference, certainly calls into question Olmert and Abbas's ability to change the situation on the ground.

In the Middle East, expressions of discontent with the status quo can become statements critical of the United States and other world powers. Yet an understanding of that phenomenon does not entitle us to ignore hostile opinions of those most affected by U.S. foreign policy in the region. International polls are useful for they provide a good reminder that American policies effect people far from our borders and that international perceptions of those policies may ultimately dictate their chances of success.

Finally, here in the United States, we can only wait and see if the Annapolis Conference will lead to a silver lining in Mr. Bush's presidency and a more positive assessment of his legacy.
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Minda Lee Arrow has completed the requirements for a master's degree in Islam and Middle East Studies from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. She holds a bachelor's degree, cum laude, from Princeton University.

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