But recent attention to Musharraf's autocratic rule may upset this relationship. General Musharraf came to power in a bloodless coup in 1999, overthrowing Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Many welcomed the military takeover, given the alleged corruption within the Sharif government. Eight years later, the same civilians are now concerned about Musharraf's tight hold on power. In March 2007, he attempted to sack Supreme Court Justice Chaudhry, a vocal advocate for an end to military rule, on charges of misconduct. But Chaudhry dismissed the charges as preposterous and politically motivated. According to Hassan Abbas, research fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, "Chaudhry has demanded greater accountability for bureaucrats, police, and even the intelligence agencies, something that was inconceivable in Pakistan before him. He also gained support of Pakistan's lawyers, who are one of the best networked communities in the country, able to reach deep into rural areas." As Musharraf pushed for Chaudhry's suspension (eight years after Musharraf swore him in as Chief Justice), the calls for Musharraf's ouster grew louder. But in May, the Supreme Court suspended the investigation into Chaudhry's record and Musharraf temporarily abandoned his crusade.

Six months later, as the Supreme Court was due to announce its decision on the validity of Musharraf's October election victory, President Musharraf struck again. He suspended the country's constitution, declared a state of emergency and replaced all of the Supreme Court Justices. Musharraf defended the move as an attempt to curb Islamic extremism, asserting that Pakistan was on the "verge of destabilization." The ensuing protests led to over a thousand arrests, including those of the now famous black-suited lawyers in the city of Lahore.

The two most prominent opposition leaders, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, condemned the state of emergency. Although, Nawaz Sharif is disqualified from running due to convictions for corruption, his party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) does plan to field a candidate in the upcoming elections. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto plans to run again, despite having been placed under house arrest soon after returning from exile.

Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and President Bush have issued strongly worded criticism of Pakistan's military rule, but have also indicated a willingness to continue working with Musharraf. U.S. foreign policy experts, afraid that Pakistan's nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of Islamic extremists want to restore stability. Another concern is the potential of a Pakistani government hostile to the United States, if the Musharraf regime falls.

ANALYSIS

U.S. foreign policy in Pakistan has always been complicated, but the "hot & cold" nature of the U.S.-Pakistani relationship is damaging to both parties. The cycle has given many of Pakistan's leaders a reason to question America's status as a reliable ally. They may inclined to hedge against the day when the U.S. again withdraws its support, by sustaining ties to Taliban and al Qaeda extremists who still wield power in tribal areas of the country.

While criticism of Musharraf is not without merit, he cannot be wholly condemned. He has improved relations with India over the Kashmir dispute and supported President Hamid Karzai's nascent democracy. His domestic reforms have led to the country's six percent growth in GDP and the 1000 percent increase in the stock market index. And although some claim Musharraf's counterterrorism efforts are cosmetic, his policies are taken seriously enough to make him the target of two assassination attempts.

But President Musharraf is not the only path to democracy in Pakistan. According to the International Crisis Group, "Pakistan is a [ ] country, with a vibrant civil society, courageous and respected judicial and media institutions and above all a long democratic tradition and civilian parties that are widely popular and experienced in government. Its extremist forces have gained what status they have in the country's politics as the beneficiaries of military manipulation, not broad citizen support." Experts agree that even if Musharraf were no longer in office, the likelihood that the country would be run by Islamic extremists is extremely small. No single Islamist party has the widespread support to win more than a small percentage of the vote. As for the nuclear weapons, Anthony Zinni, former Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the armed forces unit responsible for Pakistan, believes the nuclear facilities are safe from Islamic extremists. In free and fair elections, power would likely be held by some combination of the three mainstream civilian parties, the PPP (supporting Benazir Bhutto), PML-Q (supporting President Musharraf), and PML-N (supporting Nawaz Sharif).

Somewhere between the opposing views on Musharraf lies a sensible and consistent approach to guide relations with Pakistan.

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