Map of Kosovo

DEVELOPMENTS

On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia. While Serbia's government officially announced it was annulling the declaration of independence, that announcement appears unlikely to have any impact. More than twenty countries have already extended diplomatic recognition to an independent Kosovo, including many Western countries and countries in the Muslim world. A full, regularly updated list of countries to recognize Kosovo is available at www.kosovothanksyou.com, as are English-language versions of the new country's Declaration of Independence and Constitution.

Neither the United Nations nor the European Union have taken an official position in one direction or the other. Meanwhile, Kosovo's declaration has been met by wide-spread opposition in the former Soviet bloc. The country's Balkan neighbors have generally not recognized Kosovo's independence and news coverage in that part of the world has taken a pro-Serbian position.

In heavily Serbian Northern Kosovo, a NATO-manned border crossing, Kosovar police, among other sites, have been attacked; protests and rioting are widespread. Within Serbia, there has been widespread rioting directed at Western institutions: the United States, Slovenian, Croatian, Bosnian, Turkish, and Canadian embassies, and a McDonald's restaurant have all been targeted, and one Kosovar Serb died in the rioting at the U.S. embassy.

Rioting has also taken place in Banja Luka, the largest Serbian city in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Serbian government blames U.S. policy for the riots, while the United States emphasizes that the U.S. embassy is American territory under international law and Serbia has a legal obligation to help secure it. Adding to the tension, dozens of Serb officers have deserted the Kosovo police force since the new state declared independence.

Analysts expect that Serbia will seek a de facto partition preserving Serbian control over the areas north of the Ibar River in downtown Mitrovica (known as Kosovska Mitrovica to the Serbians).

BACKGROUND

Kosovo's history is laid out in more detail in Foreign Policy Digest's recent piece on the region.

Control of Kosovo has long been contested. For most of the 20th century it was part of Serbia and Kosovo Polje - the site of a fourteenth-century battle - is sacred ground in Serbian Eastern Orthodoxy. During the 1990s, an independence movement arose on behalf of the ethnic Albanian majority. Serbia retaliated with what many considered excessive force, and NATO intervened to avert further civilian losses. After a NATO-led bombing campaign targeting Serbia's capital city of Belgrade brought an end to the conflict, the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) took on many of the administrative duties in the province.

Recently, the Ahtisaari plan had become the predominant approach to resolving Kosovo's final status. In concert with the United Nations, former Finnish President Mahti Ahtisaari drafted a plan calling for "supervised independence" for the province which had been governed by the United Nations for almost a decade. Russia opposed the Ahtisaari plan and implicitly threatened to recognize breakaway pro-Russian movements in several former Soviet republics.

ANALYSIS

Kosovo continues to have broad strategic implications.

First, there is a danger of continued violence in the region, both against Western targets in Serbian areas and in the protests engulfing Serbia and Kosovo. Thousands of U.S. and EU troops could be caught in the middle and if Serbia makes a serious push to partition the province, contested areas - especially Mitrovica - could be subjected to large-scale violence.

Second, the dangers present in Kosovo could have spillover effects in other ethnically divided countries in the region as well as in the "frozen conflicts" of the former Soviet bloc. Concern over the potential spillover effects and the impact of Kosovo's declaration of independence on other secession movements motivated the European Union to declare that Kosovo is a unique case and does not serve as precedent for any other independence movements. It is not yet clear whether this position is practicable, but ethnic separatist movements around Eastern Europe are sure to watch closely.

Moreover, Kosovo's southern border with Macedonia is disputed and there is concern that Kosovar independence could reignite military conflict within Macedonia. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested in the past that what is good for Kosovo should be good for the frozen conflicts as well, Russia is in a strategically complicated position. As breakaway states in Georgia and Moldova push for independence, Russia worries that Kosovo will serve as a precedent not just for South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Transdniestria, but for Chechnya as well. Absent considerations about Chechnya, Russia would likely strongly consider recognizing the "frozen conflict" movements, but as it is strengthening the Kosovo precedent would put Russia's own territorial integrity at risk.

Third, Kosovo's policymakers and her allies will have to wrestle with the serious economic challenges facing the province. Widespread poverty, unemployment, corruption and serious public health challenges will face the infant country.

Finally, the United States must work to preserve Kosovo as a strong ally. There have been small anti-American gestures by extremists and many of the new state's other allies will not have America's best interests at heart. As one of the proximate causes of Kosovar independence, America should have a very special relationship with the new nation. That relationship must be preserved without destabilizing America's relationship with Russia.

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