DEVELOPMENTS

On March 2, Dmitry Medvedev was elected the next president of the Russian Federation. He will succeed Vladimir Putin when he is sworn into office on May 7. A Putin protégé, the youthful Mr. Medvedev served under Mr. Putin as First Deputy Prime Minister and was also chairman of the enormous Russian gas giant, Gazprom. Medvedev is considered much more liberal than his mentor, causing many around the world to believe his arrival in the Kremlin will bring change to Russia's world agenda. Yet, after the election, Medvedev was quoted as saying, "We will be able to preserve the course of President Putin." Will Medvedev's Russia act differently than Putin's or will Russian resurgence continue?

BACKGROUND

Far from the superpower status of the Soviet Union, Russia endured hard times in the 1990s. In an effort to rapidly reform the world's largest state-run economy into a market oriented one, Russian President Boris Yeltsin announced that his country would adopt a policy of shock therapy in 1991. In addition, as Russia took on the USSR's debt, living standards decreased, incomes shrank, and industrial output declined. Millions were plunged into poverty. Between 1990 and 1995, Russia's GDP dropped by approximately 50%. As privatization continued, many natural resources and large businesses were bought up by businessmen who became billionaires virtually overnight. Many of these oligarchs transferred billions in assets and capital outside of the country. However, the worst came in August 1998, when a financial crisis crippled the Russian economy.

During this time, the West's actions also bred Russian resentment. Many Russians were baffled by the Americans' belief that the United States, not Mikhail Gorbachev, had dismantled the Soviet Union, Other Russians thought that their country should be treated as a former superpower, not a defeated enemy. Many believed that the United States took advantage of Russia's weakness. One example was the "spinach treatment: a paternalistic Uncle Sam fed Russian leaders policies that Washington deemed healthy, no matter how unappetizing these policies seemed in Moscow." And many Russians also saw NATO expansion as a threat to Russia. 

It was under these conditions, that Vladimir Putin came to power when Boris Yeltsin resigned December 31, 1999. After winning the Russian elections in 2000, Putin embarked on an ambitious venture to bring power back to Russia. Putin was a sharp contrast to his predecessor. Compared to Yeltsin, he was "sober, athletic, and grimly determined to prosecute the bloody war in Chechnya and wipe out terrorists."

In addition to bringing the chaos in Chechnya under control, many analysts claim that Vladimir Putin has brought economic stability to Russia. Russia's GDP has grown by approximately 7 % for nine consecutive years and foreign direct investment has tripled in the last three years, Its middle class is expanding, and the federal budget has been running surpluses since 2001. Russia has used this new economic power to reassert itself on the world stage.

With Moscow's coffers, the Russian military is reclaiming a more prominent role. In the summer of 2005, Russia engaged in the first ever joint military exercises with China, dubbed "Peace Mission 2005." In August 2007, Russia announced that it was resuming the patrols of strategic long-range bombers - a practice that had been abandoned since 1992. Since then, Russian bombers have been seen near Guam, Norway and Japan. In addition to its new claim in the Artic, Russia also announced that it was sending its first major naval sortie into the Mediterranean since the Cold War. In December 2007, Russia formally withdrew from the Conventional Forces of Europe Treaty.

For his radical modernization of Russia, Vladimir Putin was recently named the 2007 Time Person of the Year. But his restructuring of Russia's place in the world has been heavily criticized by many in the West for three reasons. First, as elaborated in a recent report by The Economist, the recent revival of Russia's economy is due to high oil prices, not Putin's economic policies. Secondly, although lives of ordinary Russians have improved, many westerners have denounced Russia's slide from democracy. The Kremlin currently owns all the main national television networks. In 2004 Putin announced that he would appoint all governors, and in 2007 a viable Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) presence was banned from Russia. Third, many complain of the rampant corruption in Putin's government and the power given to those who formerly worked in the military or security services, known as the siloviki. According to some studies, approximately three quarters of all officials in Putin's government have a background in the siloviki.

ANALYSIS

This is where Dmitry Medvedev could differ from Vladimir Putin. He will be the first Russian president who has not been in the Communist Party or the KGB. Some insiders support this, but add that although he does not come from the siloviki, he comes from the other side of Putin's regime: the bureaucracy. If political infighting persists between the two groups, it will be harder for Medvedev to pursue more liberal policies - if he even chooses to do so in the first place.

However, some evidence suggests that Medvedev is much more liberal. Medvedev has said that not only are free media and property rights vital for building democracy, but that Russia must also follow the rule of law. He has also said that "freedom is better than non-freedom," and that this applies to economic and personal freedoms. Such talk makes many believe that Russia's current relations with the West may improve. Then again, it is possible that Medvedev's perceived liberalism may force him to compensate by being more ruthless than people expect.

Although Russia has a new president, with Vladimir Putin as Medvedev's Prime Minister the future of Russia remains a mystery. Perhaps Putin's influenece will fade as Medvedev consolidates power as president, allowing for a liberal shift in Russian foreign policy. Or it is feasible that Putin will remain powerful as Prime Minister, a sort of Russian Deng Xiaoping, possibly running for President again after Medvedev's first term. Or, as seen in Medvedev's recent comments on NATO expansion into Georgia and Ukraine, Medvedev's policies will stay consistent with those of Putin. In any case, with the Russian population decreasing, a massive HIV problem growing, the possibility of oil revenues (and hence state revenues) declining, and three American Presidential candidates calling for a crackdown on Russia's sway from democracy, the future course of the relationship between Russia and the West will remain unclear for the next few years.

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Ryan Kaiser is a Master's Candidate at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He obtained his B.A. in Diplomacy and Foreign Affairs, cum laude, from Miami University in 2004 and has experience in international affairs in both the public and non-profit sectors.

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